Bet2Master

A standard American-odds point spread line of -110 on both sides isn't pricing a 50/50 event at even money. It's pricing it at roughly 52.4% implied probability on each side, a total of 104.8%, and that extra 4.8% is the vig, the sportsbook's built-in margin. This piece works through where that number comes from and how to calculate it on any line. Concept: what American odds actually encode American odds express a bet's payout relative to a fixed reference stake. A negative number, such as -110, states how much you must stake to win 100 dollars. A positive number, such as +150, states how much you win on a 100 dollar stake. Both formats encode an implied probability, and that implied probability, not the raw number, is what determines whether a line is fairly priced. Formula: converting American odds to implied probability For a negative line: implied probability equals the absolute value of the odds, divided by the absolute value of the odds plus 100. For a posit...

A baccarat tie bet carries a 14.36% house edge. A blackjack hand played with basic strategy carries roughly 0.40%. That's a 35 fold gap between two bets sitting on the same felt. House edge is the one number that makes bets across completely different games comparable, and most of what gets called "odds" in casual conversation isn't actually that number. Concept: What House Edge Actually Measures House edge is the casino's expected share of every dollar wagered over a large number of bets, not the probability of losing a single hand or spin. A game can have a high probability of winning individual rounds and still carry a meaningful house edge, because the size of the payout on a win matters as much as how often a win happens. Roulette's single number bet wins only 2.7% of the time on a European wheel, yet the house edge is a comparatively low 2.70%, because the payout on that rare win, 35 to 1, is calibrated close to fair odds. A coin flip proposition that...